Siena Poll: Two-Thirds of New Yorkers Reject GOP Control of the Senate
By Mike Connery on 08/18/2010 @ 03:24 PM
The latest poll from Siena College shows an anti-incumbent mood in New York directed primarily at upstate Republicans and the Party of No.
According to the poll's findings, 67% of New Yorkers reject a GOP-controlled Senate, preferring to see the Democrats make gains in the chamber (33%) or see the Senate remain closely divided (34%) among the parties. Anti-incumbent sentiment was directed primarily at upstate Republicans, where 58% of voters preferred "someone else" to their current representative, vs. 52% in the suburbs and just 43% in New York City.
Stan Greenberg of Siena puts the numbers into perspective:
“Republicans and independent voters are much more negative toward their incumbent senators than are Democrats, and upstaters and downstate suburban voters are much more negative than are voters in New York City."
This is the third poll from Siena to show that New Yorkers are overwhelmingly ready to kick Republican incumbents out of office. This poll is the latest in a string of bad news for Republicans, including lackluster fundraising numbers, a small and underwhelming class of candidates, and a particularly vicious and divisive primary battle in SD-40.
New Yorkers remember well what four decades of Republican deals, deficits and dysfunction did to our state. They don't want to return to the bad-old-days and are ready to empower Democrats to continue our work of reforming Albany.
Full cross tabs embedded below:
GOP County Chair Implying Republican Senators Should Not Seek Reelection?
By Mike Connery on 06/29/2010 @ 04:43 PM
Yesterday, Westchester County Republican Party chair Doug Colety absurdly requested that Democratic Sen. Suzi Oppenheimer not run for re-election this fall. His reasoning? A recent Quinnipiac University poll that found around 80 percent of voters are “somewhat dissatisfied” or “very dissatisfied” with the way things are going in the state.
Maybe Colety should be more familiar with recent polling before he make requests that reek of desperation. If he was, he would know that the latest polling Siena polling showed an anti-incumbent mood in New York – one that was directed primarily at upstate Republicans and the Party of No.
According to the poll's findings, 66% of New Yorkers reject a GOP-controlled Senate, preferring to see the Democrats make gains in the chamber (34%) or see the Senate remain closely divided (32%) among the parties. Anti-incumbent sentiment was directed primarily at upstate Republicans, where 58% of voters preferred "someone else" to their current representative, vs. 51% in the suburbs and just 40% in New York City.
On the generic ballot, 44% preferred a Democratic Senator to just 26% Republican. Stan Greenberg of Siena put the numbers into perspective: “Democrats are inclined to re-elect their incumbent state senator by a 47-40 percent margin, while Republican voters prefer ‘someone else’ by an overwhelming 60-23 percent margin,” Greenberg said. “Upstate, where 20 of 25 senators are Republican, only 28 percent want to re-elect their senator and 58 percent prefer ‘someone else.’
This not the first poll to suggest frustration with the GOP. This is the second poll from Siena (and third poll overall) to show that New Yorkers are overwhelmingly ready to kick Republican incumbents out of office.
By Colety’s ‘logic,’ every Republican Senator should fail to run for reelection this year- after all, polls show that people are upset and that they are more dissatisfied with Republicans.
It’s not too often we find ourselves agreeing with a GOP county chair- but if he wants to wipe the November ballots of all Republican incumbents, we wouldn’t put up much of a fight.
Siena Poll: 66% of New Yorkers Reject GOP Control of the Senate
By Mike Connery on 06/14/2010 @ 11:16 AM
The latest poll from Siena College shows an anti-incumbent mood in New York directed primarily at upstate Republicans and the Party of No.
According to the poll's findings, 66% of New Yorkers reject a GOP-controlled Senate, preferring to see the Democrats make gains in the chamber (34%) or see the Senate remain closely divided (32%) among the parties. Anti-incumbent sentiment was directed primarily at upstate Republicans, where 58% of voters preferred "someone else" to their current representative, vs. 51% in the suburbs and just 40% in New York City.
On the generic ballot, 44% preferred a Democratic Senator to just 26% Republican. Stan Greenberg of Siena puts the numbers into perspective:
“Only 35 percent of voters want to re-elect their incumbent state senator, while 50 percent prefer ‘someone else.’ It is not, however, automatically good news for Senate minority Republicans seeking to regain control. Democrats are inclined to re-elect their incumbent state senator by a 47-40 percent margin, while Republican voters prefer ‘someone else’ by an overwhelming 60-23 percent margin,” Greenberg said. “Upstate, where 20 of 25 senators are Republican, only 28 percent want to re-elect their senator and 58 percent prefer ‘someone else.’
These are not isolated numbers. This is the second poll from Siena (and third poll overall) to show that New Yorkers are overwhelmingly ready to kick Republican incumbents out of office. What's more, the poll comes on the heels of a string of bad news for Republicans, including four high-profile retirements, an underwhelming class of candidates, voter registration gains for Democrats across the state, and the felony conviction of former Republican Leader Joe Bruno.
New Yorkers remember well what four decades of Republican deals, deficits and dysfunction did to our state. They don't want to return to the bad-old-days and are ready to empower Democrats to continue our work of reforming Albany.
Full cross tabs embedded below:
Siena Poll: Three-quarters of New Yorkers say property taxes too high; Support property tax cap
By Mike Connery on 05/28/2010 @ 09:54 AM
New Yorkers continue to see higher property taxes and homeowners are demanding relief from Albany.
A new Siena poll released earlier this week shows just how frustrated New Yorkers have become - 75% of homeowners say what they pay for property taxes is too high and 79% say that paying their property taxes is taking a bigger piece of their budget each year.
They are right - for the past 30 years, with the State Senate under Republican control, New York has been home to the highest state and local taxes in the country.
Concern over property taxes was greatest among suburbanites in the poll, 89% of whom feel they are paying too much. And who can blame them? Under the leadership of Joe Bruno and the Republicans, property taxes rose by 550% in Suffolk County between 1980 and 2009, and by 320% in Nassau County between 1985 and 2009.
Over 75% of respondents who were homeowners expressed their support for a property tax cap that would limit the rate at which property taxes can increase. Senate Democrats passed such a bill in the Senate last year and Conference Leader John Sampson has consistently argued for billions in property tax savings for New Yorkers in the current budget negotiations. Most recently, gubernatorial candidate Andrew Cuomo proposed a 2% property tax cap as a central part of his economic plan for New York.
Democrats have shown that we hear New Yorkers loud and clear, and we'll continue to fight for the property tax relief that homeowners across the state need and deserve.
Siena Poll: Nearly Three-Quarters of New Yorkers Reject Republican Control of Senate
By Mike Connery on 05/24/2010 @ 11:21 AM
Buried in the cross tabs of this morning's poll from Siena College is yet more evidence that 2010 could be a bad year for Republican incumbents.
When asked if the election for State Senate were held today would you vote to re-elect your incumbent Senator or would you prefer someone else?, 49% of respondents expressed a desire to throw out their incumbent Senator - the highest number ever in a Sienna poll.
Among upstate voters - the Republican base - 53% want to see someone new represent them.
When asked would you prefer to see the Democrats win a larger majority, would you prefer to see the Republicans win control of the Senate, or would you prefer to see the Senate continue to be closely divided between Republicans and Democrats? a plurality of respondents - 36% - wanted to expand the Democratic Majority in 2010.
Most significantly, almost three quarters of respondents outright rejected Republican control of the Senate
For those paying close attention, you'll recognize this as yet another in a string of polls, studies and retirements, the sum total of which all point to one conclusion: Across the political spectrum, New Yorkers keenly remember what 44 years of Republican rule did for the state, and they're not ready to return to power the same party whose tax-and-spend (and borrow) approach drove our state to fiscal crisis.
For those who need a refresher course:
- A study of voter enrollment data conducted by NYPIRG in April revealed that Democrats saw enrollment gains in 51 of 62 Senate Districts, and that Democrats held an outright registration advantage in 45 districts.
- A poll by Quinnipiac in May showed results similar to those revealed by Siena today. Quinnipiac found anti-incumbent sentiment at its highest point in the poll's history, with Republican base voters showing the highest levels of dissatisfaction.
- Republicans suffered three high-profile retirements in recent months: Leibell, Volker, and Morahan.
- Former Republican Majority Leader Joe Bruno was convicted on two felony corruption counts.
- And the shallowness of the Republican political bench was revealed very publicly in a New York Times story in which potential GOP Senate candidates revealed that they declined to run due to a lack of confidence in the Republican leadership.
Middle-class families and our small businesses can’t afford to do business the way Republicans have done business. That is why they continue to reject GOP and are ready to grow the Democratic Majority in 2010.
Republicans Give Their Own Party a Vote of No Confidence
By Mike Connery on 05/05/2010 @ 10:00 AM
An article in today's New York Times paints a dim picture of Republican prospects up and down the ticket this cycle.
With the Republican State Convention approaching, the party is plagued by infighting, short of money and struggling to assemble a competitive slate of statewide candidates for the fall, leaving many party leaders worried that they are poorly positioned to exploit what might be the most favorable political climate for New York Republicans in years.
At the top of the ticket, the GOP's most viable candidate is all but invisible, eclipsed by Paladino's racist emails, and a media-grabbing challenge by a former Democrat with a history of anti-immigrant rhetoric. High profile candidates have taken a pass at challenging Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, and a Republican has yet to announce for the AG race.
The situation has party leaders and potential candidates all expressing dismay at the state of the party's political bench, all the way down to the State Senate:
“I’m just disappointed at the inability to attract top-level candidates in some of the statewide and Congressional and State Senate races,” said Henry F. Wojtaszek, a former chairman of the Niagara County party who lost a bid for state chairman to Mr. Cox last fall.
...
Elizabeth N. Feld, former mayor of the Westchester village of Larchmont, ran a spirited race in 2008 against the local Democratic state senator, but decided against a rematch this year.
“A lot of Republicans who might have run for office this year said, ‘I don’t have faith in this leadership,’ ” Ms. Feld said.
This is another piece in a string of bad news for Senate Republicans' political prospects. Unmentioned in the piece are the retirements of two Republican Senators - Dale Volker and Vincent Leibell. In both races, it looks as if a bruising primary season is in store for Republican candidates. A recent Quinnipiac Poll showed greater dissatisfaction and anti-incumbent sentiment among Republican base voters than among Democrats, and a NYPIRG study of voter enrollment data showing gains for Democrats in 51 of the Senate's 62 districts.
By contrast, Senate Democrats already have challengers announced in half a dozen races, and will bring the fight to many more Republican incumbents this cycle.
Property Taxes and Upstate Republican Dissatisfaction
By Mike Connery on 04/19/2010 @ 04:09 PM
One more thought on the Siena Poll released this morning. As I noted earlier, the poll showed that upstate Republican voters are significantly more frustrated with their incumbent Senators than are downstate Democratic voters.
If one had to venture a reason for this, they could do worse than to look at this piece from yesterday's Democrat & Chronicle: Upstate Shoulders Lion's Share in Taxes.
Live in Westchester County and you pay the highest property taxes in the nation, with a median of $8,404 a year.
Live in upstate New York, and you also have an unenviable distinction.
Sixteen upstate counties — including Monroe, Orleans, Erie and Cortland — pay the highest property taxes compared to home values in the country, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
In all, New York's local taxes are 79 percent higher than the national average, a 2008 state report found.
Property-tax levies grew 60 percent between 1995 and 2005, more than twice the inflation rate, the state Comptroller's Office said.
Let's give that a second to really sink in. During just 10 years of Republicans' 44 year rein in the State Senate, property taxes increased by 60 percent.
Given that Republicans just unanimously rejected a Democratic budget resolution that would have provided $500 million property tax relief, I'd say upstate Republican voters have a lot to be angry about.
Quinnipiac Poll Spells Trouble for Republicans
By Mike Connery on 04/15/2010 @ 04:26 PM
Here's some bad news for Republicans hoping to ride a wave of anti-incumbent sentiment back into the majority in the state Senate. A new poll from Quinnipiac shows that while anti-incumbent sentiment is higher than ever, that dissatisfaction is disproportionately directed towards the NY GOP.
Voters also want 50 - 39 percent to clean house in the State Senate, including voting out their own State Senator. This is the strongest anti-incumbent sentiment ever measure in New York. Democrats want to stick with their Senator 51 - 38 percent. Anti-incumbent feeling is 57 - 30 percent among Republicans and 59 - 32 percent among independent voters.
Combined with the voter enrollment data coming out of NYPIRG earlier this week, this is bad news from some Republicans. Of the five districts in which the voter enrollment shifted to Democrats in the last two years, four of those districts belong to incumbent Republicans: Alesi, Hannon, O. Johnson and Fuschillo. The fifth district that flipped belongs to Brian Foley, where more Democrats on the rolls will help shore up his base of support.
Fewer Republicans on the voter rolls combined with a GOP base and swing electorate upset with Republicans will make for a challenging campaign season for Republicans and could tip the balance towards Democrats in a few races.
