The Dominoes Continue to Fall - Republicans Contend with Primaries and Retirements
By Mike Connery on 06/06/2010 @ 01:14 PM
Another day and another domino falls in a chain reaction of events that looks to dash GOP hopes of retaking the State Senate in November. Three stories this weekend continue the trend we've been monitoring for weeks.
First up, Capital News reports that a contentious Republican primary between between concert pianist Andrew Russo and East Syracuse Mayor Danny Liedka is setting up the GOP for a repeat (defeat) performance in the district currently represented by Democrat David Valesky:
Six years later, Republicans appear to have a shot at retaking the seat from Valesky, which would considerably bolster their odds of winning back the upper chamber. But a potentially divisive Republican primary between East Syracuse Mayor Danny Liedka and Andrew Russo, a concert pianist, threatens to again thrash GOP hopes.
In addition, Russo has already gotten the Conservative Party’s endorsement to run on its line in November, which would present problems for Liedka and the GOP if he emerges as their nominee. Russo said that he would run an active general election campaign on the Conservative line regardless, unlike Dadey, who Russo said did not actively campaign on the Independence and Conservative lines in 2004.
The primary was sparked, in part, because local Republican county chairs have unable to pick a candidate in the race, announcing in mid-March that they were deadlocked. (Russo won the backing of Onondoga County, which has the highest Republican registration in the district, while Russo took Madison County, which has the second highest registration.)
This local primary is microcosm of a larger trend we've seen among the GOP across the state. New York Republicans are in chaos, unable to field strong challengers from within the party ranks, short on cash and facing primary challengers from the right and left. Indeed, the SRCC appears to be supporting Russo over one of their own purely because of his cash-on-hand advantage over Leidka:
But fearing the consequences of a heated primary in a district they have serious hopes of winning, the Senate Republican Campaign Committee has made no such promises, announcing in mid-May the unusual decision to back Russo in the intra-party struggle. Leadership of the SRCC says that it will be willing to put staffers into the district and recruit elected officials to campaign on Russo’s behalf.
Fundraising was a major factor in the SRCC’s decision: Russo had $96,000 cash on hand as of the January campaign finance filing, while Liedka acknowledges he has raised far less, though he has not made any official financial disclosure.
Meanwhile, both the Ithaca Journal and Democrat and Chronicle published stories examining the difficulties Republicans face due to the large number of retirements. Every week, it seems, brings news of another GOP senate retirement, each of which requires an expenditure of resources to defend previously safe seats and draws the GOP's attention away from top tier races.
Republicans are eagerly hoping they can win back the majority in the state Senate this year, but they unexpectedly face having to defend four seats in which veteran GOP lawmakers are leaving office at year's end.
The four departures complicates Senate Republicans' goal of flipping the tenuous 32-30 seat Democratic majority and regaining control of a chamber the GOP held for more than 40 years before the 2008 elections.
One domino at a time, Republican hopes of recapturing the chamber are fading. While GOP candidates are dropping like flies (or in-fighting like the Lord of the Flies), Democrats are fielding strong challengers in more districts than ever before.
New Yorkers still remember well what 44 years of Republican control of the senate was like. That's why anti-incumbent sentiment is directed strongly at upstate Republicans - holdovers from the reign of Joe Bruno - and why 3/4 of New Yorkers reject Republican control of the Senate.
And that's why 2010 is shaping up to be a good year for Democrats.
Morahan To Retire, Open a Third GOP Seat?
By Mike Connery on 05/10/2010 @ 02:26 PM
Liz Benjamin is reporting that Republican C. Scott Vanderhoef is getting ready to announce his candidacy for the state senate seat currently held by Thomas Morahan. If true, it will likely mean that Morahan is set to retire at the end of his term:
Republican Rockland County Executive C. Scott Vanderhoef is poised to announce his bid for the state Senate seat expected to be vacated by ailing veteran incumbent Tom Morahan, who has been battling Leukemia and is expected not to seek re-election this fall, a Hudson Valley GOP source confirmed.
The five-term incumbent won’t mount a primary challenge against Morahan, who has insisted his illness won’t prevent him from running, but insiders – including retiring Sen. Dale Volker – have suggested their colleague’s health concerns might ultimately trump his desire to stay in office.
If this turns out to be true, Morahan's retirement will be the third high-profile loss for the Republicans this year, with a potential fourth on the way. Republican Senators Dale Volker and Vincent Leibell have both announced their intentions to retire this year.
This is yet another in a string of bad blows to what should have been a banner year for Republican candidates. The New York Times recently reported that the state GOP's political bench was in bad shape, with many top tier candidates declining to run. Last month, a voter enrollment study from NYPIRG showed gains for Democrats in 51 of the Senate's 62 districts, and a poll from Quinnipiac indicated a high degree of anti-incumbent sentiment among upstate Republicans, where Republican Senate districts are located.
